By Steve Blumenthal June 1, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2090 Two charts that update monthly are the “Global Recession Probability Model” and “The Economy vs. The S&P 500 Index.” Dating back to 1970, the Global Recession Probability Model has correctly predicted global recession [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 2016 Strategic Investment Conference
May 27, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The problem with human beings is that they buy what they wish they had and they sell what they are going to need.” – Mark Yusko Yusko took the stage Thursday morning and told a story about a time in 1999 when he served as the chief investment officer of the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Extreme Pessimism Sentiment (S/T Bullish) Supports Market Rally, S&P 500 Index 2040 Support Level Holds
By Steve Blumenthal May 25, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2090 Extreme pessimism remains short-term bullish for the market. High yield has done well since last week’s buy signal and continues to rally. The Zweig Bond Model remains in a buy signal. Trend is short-term positive but note that the [...]Read More >
CMG Capital Management Group Adopts Global Investment Performance Standards (“GIPS”) Verified By Ashland Partners
KING OF PRUSSIA, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. is pleased to announce the adoption of Global Investment Performance Standards (“GIPS”) for investment performance calculation and reporting. CMG has chosen Ashland Partners & Company LLP to verify its GIPS policies and [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Notes From Mom
May 20, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Let yourself be silently drawn by the strange pull of what you really love. It will not lead you astray.” -Rumi Sometimes it is good to sit back, reflect, recharge and then, once again, drive forward. I pulled open a drawer and found, tucked at the bottom [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Fed Minutes: Odds of a Rate Hike…Up
By Steve Blumenthal May 18, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2041 Release of the Fed minutes showed that members would support a rate hike if economic data improved. The market immediately sold off. Here are the change in odds as tracked by CME: June: 34 percent chance, up from 19 percent prior [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Champions of Conviction
May 13, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Invest in good companies, don’t use leverage, invest in liquid investments, don’t do private deals and light a candle and pray for a positive outcome.” -Leon Cooperman, Omega “Debt drains away vital resources from economic growth. Fighting a debt crisis with [...]Read More >
Central Banks and the Rise of Extremism – John Mauldin
JOHN MAULDIN | May 11, 2016 Do you feel as if you’re the rope in a tug of war? That’s the closest analogy I can come up with to describe what’s going on inside my own head – and in the world. And at the last few conferences where I’ve spoken, talking with the participants afterwards, I’ve found [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Investor Pessimism, Momentum and Trend
By Steve Blumenthal May 11, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2069 I’m in Las Vegas this week at the SALT Alternatives Investment Conference. I’ll share some high level notes in Friday’s “On My Radar.” The market remains range-bound. Sentiment has improved, meaning investor sentiment is nearing the [...]Read More >
CMG Q1 2016 Quarterly Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2016 first quarter performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. Market index performance is presented at the bottom of the chart. Within the total portfolio construction [...]Read More >
GMO White Paper – Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money?
By Peter Chiappinelli & Ram Thirukkonda Summary Defined Contribution (DC) plan participants are haunted by an invisible risk called sequence risk (sometimes called sequence-of-returns or path dependency risk), that is, getting the “right” returns but in the “wrong” order. Sequence risk in [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Stan Says Sell
May 6, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal "The Fed has borrowed from future consumption more than ever before. It is the least data dependent Fed in history. This is the longest deviation from historical norms in terms of Fed dovishness than I have ever seen in my career... This kind of myopia causes [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Market’s Haven’t Liked Mondays Over The Last Five Years
By Steve Blumenthal May 4, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2051 Before you take the quick dive into this week’s Trade Signals, here is an interesting fun fact courtesy of Bespoke Investment Research. “Over the last five years, Mondays have been by far the worst days for the S&P 500 with an [...]Read More >
On My Radar: He Ain’t Heavy, He’s My Brother
April 29, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal The road is long With many a winding turn That leads us to who knows where Who knows when But I'm strong Strong enough to carry him He ain't heavy, he's my brother So on we go His welfare is of my concern No burden is he to bear We'll get there For I [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged
By Steve Blumenthal April 27, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2090 From the Fed this afternoon: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed. Growth [...]Read More >
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