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On My Radar: The Only Game in Town

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July 8, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Bonds are what they are. Today, they are less than what they are. It is said—nothing is ever new under the sun of finance… but we do live in a unique time in two critical ways—interest rates and monetary moment. A few years ago, a book appeared called A History of [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Data Dependent – Fed Dependent

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July 1, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We recognize that our EU policies aren’t working for everybody. That’s okay. We just have to figure out how to make sure that everybody gets what they need, even if it means less control from Brussels.” -European Union’s founding members: Belgium, France, [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Oversold, Extreme Pessimism ST Bullish, Risk High

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By Steve Blumenthal June 29, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2061 High Yield hit stop-loss levels and is back to a sell.  Investor pessimism moved to extreme.  Such periods of extreme pessimism have historically been short-term bullish for equities.  High-quality bonds remain in a buy signal.  The [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Brexit!

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June 24, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal  “Italeave, Finish, Czechout, Oustria, Byegium and Departugal.” -- Wilfred Frost, CNBC, June 24, 2016 Brexit!  The world markets are in shock.  What’s next?  You'll find my thinking below.  This is day 1. There is more to come. I’m en route to California [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – HY Opportunity Ahead (Just Not Quite Yet)

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By Steve Blumenthal June 22, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2088 HY moved back to a buy signal early this week.  The asset class tends to be a leading indicator of both economic and stock market direction.  We had a great run and we are pleased.  Right now, the signal is for more “risk [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Kumbaya, My Friend, Kumbaya

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June 17, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Everyone focuses on the Fed’s balance sheet – the $3 trillion dollars and the problems that creates.  Don’t forget there is another balance sheet – that’s the balance sheet of us in the market that sold them the bonds and were forced into the risk assets that [...]Read More >

On My Radar: “Float Like a Butterfly, Sting Like a Bee.”

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June 10, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The best thing we can do is get back to pricing risk. Getting to that point should be and will be painful.”  -- PJ Grzywacz, President, CMG Capital Management Group “Central banks don’t like being the only game in town, but they don’t know how to get out of [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Nearing an All-Time High

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By Steve Blumenthal June 8, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2119 At the time of this writing, the S&P 500 Index is 15 points away from making an all-time high (amen to that).  Are you as curious as I am as to how the current bull market compares to prior bull runs?  In a word - “aged.”  The [...]Read More >

How I use the CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Indicator

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How it works - A note on the CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index:  The index is a weight of evidence approach to identify high risk and low risk investment environments. The direction of the model line in the middle section of the chart can help us see if the weight of evidence is improving or [...]Read More >

On My Radar: “Fed Up”

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June 3, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.” – Abraham Lincoln Do you remember back in the early 80s when interest rates peaked at 15.25% and most everyone felt rates were moving higher, certainly not lower?  [...]Read More >