By Steve Blumenthal August 24, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2174 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. It is my weekly risk management dashboard, designed to keep me better in sync with the major technical [...]Read More >
On My Radar: “In the Realm of Economics, No Government Can Play God.”
August 19, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “In the realm of economics, no government can play god.” -- José Niño, Analyst, Acton Circle of Chile I came across today’s intro quote this week while sitting in my beach chair facing the Atlantic Ocean. The title seems apropos to the world we find ourselves [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed Moves to Neutral Signal, Investor Sentiment Remains Too Optimistic, HY and Zweig Remain in Buy Signals
By Steve Blumenthal August 17, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2174 “Because for any given level of return, if you diversify, you can generate that return with a lower risk; or for any given level of risk, if you diversify, you can generate a higher return. So it’s a free lunch. Diversification makes [...]Read More >
CMG Q2 2016 Quarterly Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2016 second quarter performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. Market index performance is presented at the bottom of the chart. Within the total portfolio construction [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Best Looking Dude at the Dance
August 12, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We’ve been bulls on 30-year Treasury bonds since 1981 when we stated, “We’re entering the bond rally of a lifetime.” “Their yields back then were 15.2%, but our forecast called for huge declines in inflation and, with it, a gigantic fall in bond yields to our [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Feels Like 1997 Absent the Cab Drivers Speculating on Stocks
By Steve Blumenthal August 10, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2156 Technically, the S&P 500 Index looks strong. The price trend, as measured by the 13/34-Week MA (posted below) turned positive in late March 2016. My favorite “weight of evidence indicator,” the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Taking the “E” Train South
On My Radar: Taking the “E” Train South August 5, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “There is no panacea for the low returns implied by asset valuations today. Anyone suggesting differently is either fooling themselves or trying to fool you. But piling into the assets that have been the biggest help to [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Bond Market Risks, Zweig Bond Model a Buy, HY Weakening, Sentiment at Bullish Extreme, Gold Trend Positive, CMG Opportunistic All Asset Strategy 45% Equities/55% Fixed Income
By Steve Blumenthal August 3, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2156 I noted several weeks ago that investor sentiment had reached a bullish extreme. Such readings are generally short-term bearish for equities. With the stock market down seven days in a row, investor optimism has declined but still [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Bubble Trouble
July 29, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Last week, market conditions joined the same tiny handful of extremes that defined the 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007 market peaks.” - John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (Source) At a recent investment conference, one of the panelists was an investment officer for the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Strength in Health Care, Telecom & Fixed Income
By Steve Blumenthal July 27, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2166 The “Don’t Fight the Fed or the Tape” indicator is showing the strongest reading in some time (+2). The reading has been +1 for a number of months. Note in the following chart that such readings have happened only 5.74% of the time [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Junkyard Dogs
July 22, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We’ve had a lot of QE and we are not sure if it works.” - Former Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher (Source) One of the best reads for me this week came from the creative pen of Danielle DiMartino Booth. She was an analyst at the Dallas Federal Reserve for [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Investor Sentiment Reflects Extreme Optimism
By Steve Blumenthal July 20, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2167 I like to think of this weekly process as a risk management dashboard. Of note this week is the extreme level of investor optimism. Generally, such readings are short-term bearish for equities and suggest a pause or correction within [...]Read More >
On My Radar: I Don’t Know How to Love Him
July 15, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal I don't know how to love him, What to do, how to move him. I've been changed, yes, really changed. In these past few days when I've seen myself I seem like someone else… Should I bring him down? Should I scream and shout? Should I speak of love - let my [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – All-Time Record High
By Steve Blumenthal July 13, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2150 There are no major changes this week; though, daily investor sentiment is nearing Extreme Optimism. The cyclical trend for U.S. equities remains bullish. With valuations high (and they could go higher), risk remains high. Hedge any [...]Read More >
John Mauldin – Thoughts From The Frontline
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