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On My Radar: Equity Market Valuations & Probable Forward Returns

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October 7, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Value investing is simple to understand but difficult to implement.” — Seth Klarman, The Baupost Group Today, let’s take a look at the most recent market valuations.  Hint and not a surprise: both stocks and bonds remain expensively priced.  Value?  Not [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Confidence Lost, Then Crisis

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September 30, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” -- Yogi Berra Something just doesn’t feel right to me.  In March 2008, Bear Stearns executives made a shocking discovery: They were nearly out of cash.  They faced a barrage of withdrawals from worried clients.  In a [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Morningstar ETF Conference – Best Ideas, Part II

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September 23, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Being fully invested is a myth.  You shouldn’t always be fully invested.” Mark W. Yusko, Founder, CEO and CIO Morgan Creek Capital Management, at the 2016 Morningstar ETF Conference Last week, I shared some of my notes from the recent Morningstar ETF [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Bond Market Sell Signals

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By Steve Blumenthal September 21, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,140 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  It is my weekly risk management dashboard, designed to keep me better in sync with the major technical [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Best Ideas

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September 16, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Human beings do something really well.  They buy what they wish they would have bought and they are spectacular at it. The last time we had a record amount of money move to passive was in March 2000.  Back then only 10% of the market was passive and today it [...]Read More >

On My Radar: The Fed’s Next Move

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September 9, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal I and others however, have for several years now, suggested that the primary problem lies with zero/negative interest rates; that not only do they fail to provide an "easing cushion" should recession come knocking at the door, but they [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Sentiment Better, Risk On Remains

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By Steve Blumenthal September 7, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,184 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  It is my weekly risk management dashboard, designed to keep me better in sync with the major technical [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Why? Because We Need the Eggs

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September 2, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Woody Allen closes “Annie Hall” with a joke: This guy goes to a psychiatrist and says, ‘Doc, my brother's crazy; he thinks he's a chicken.’  And the doctor says, ‘Well, why don't you turn him in?’  The guy says, ‘I would, but I need the eggs.’ That pretty [...]Read More >

On My Radar: The Little Engine That Could

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August 26, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We live at a time where the unthinkable has become common.” — B. Scott Minerd, Managing Partner, Guggenheim Partners Do you remember the story book The Little Engine That Could?  The best known version of the story was written by "Watty Piper," the pen name [...]Read More >