By Steve Blumenthal April 26, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2.394 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Handle with Extreme Care
April 21, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist. They assume that something that was a good investment in the recent past is still a good investment. Typically, high past returns simply imply that an [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Equities: No Progress since March 6. Bullish Trend Signals in Fixed Income.
By Steve Blumenthal April 19, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2.342 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Fundamentally Bipolar; Fed Tightening Cycles – Past and Present
April 14, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “…the Fed has typically tightened too much and/or for too long. From this long history, a well-established pattern is identifiable. The economic growth rate along with inflation receded. A financial crisis was more likely than not.” – Van R. Hoisington and [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Low Risk of Recession, High Risk of Inflation, Equity Trend Remains Bullish
By Steve Blumenthal April 12, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,346 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
Hoisington Investment Management Co. — Quarterly Review & Outlook (1Q2017)
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On My Radar: Valuations, Earnings and Forward Returns
April 7, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Ride, Captain Ride Upon Your Mystery Ship
By Steve Blumenthal April 5, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,376 Before we jump into this week’s charts, call me crazy for I have no idea why “Ride Captain Ride” popped into my head, but it sure seems to sum up where we find ourselves today (at least for now): Seventy-three men sailed up From the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Causes and Consequences of Fewer U.S. Equities
March 31, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal I’m going to try to tie two related themes together today. The first, and I have to admit I was surprised when I saw the research, is the incredible shrinking universe of stocks. Think corporate share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions and fewer companies [...]Read More >
Ned Davis Research/Ned’s Insights — The Passive Investing Bubble (March 22, 2017)
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Credit Suisse — The Incredible Shrinking Universe of Stocks (March 22, 2017)
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Trade Signals — Extreme Pessimism Reading S/T Bullish for Equities; Primary Trend Remains Bullish
By Steve Blumenthal March 29, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,358 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: No Friends on a Powder Day
March 24, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “First, if the bubble were to collapse on its own, would the effect on the economy be exceedingly large? Second, is it unlikely that the Fed could mitigate the consequences? Third, is monetary policy the best tool to use to deflate a house-price bubble? My [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Extreme Optimism Beginning to Reverse, Looking For Pessimism; Equity Trend Signals Remain Bullish
By Steve Blumenthal March 22, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,346 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A High Probability Way to Forecast Recession (Recession? No Sign Just Yet)
March 17, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Time is like a river that will take you forward into encounters with reality that will require you to make decisions. You can’t stop the movement down this river, and you can’t avoid the encounters. You can only approach these encounters in the best way [...]Read More >
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