By Steve Blumenthal June 14, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,435 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Mark Yusko’s Ten Surprises — Notes from the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference (Part 3)
June 9, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Your job as investors is to feel sick to your stomach. Do not invest when you are excited and everything is great… go shopping when things go on sale.” “We will have a recession sometime within the next 12 months. It is not going to be different this time.” – [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Cyclical Bull Signals on Equities and Fixed Income
By Steve Blumenthal June 7, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,429 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Dr. Lacy Hunt – Notes from the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference (Part 2)
June 2, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The initial conditions or the starting point conditions, mean to me that a small degree of monetary restraint has a very quick and strong impact on economic activity.” - Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D., Hoisington Investment Management 2017 Strategic Investment [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — S&P 500 Up 8.7% YTD; Trend Evidence Remains Bullish
By Steve Blumenthal May 31, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,413 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Great Reset – Notes from the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference (Part 1)
May 26, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal "If you make an investment and feel good about it, you'll lose money. If you make an investment and you don’t feel good about it, you’ll make money. Go shopping when things are on sale." – Mark Yusko, Morgan Creek Capital Management 2017 Strategic Investment [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed
By Steve Blumenthal May 24, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,398 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Near Term Looks Good, Long Term Looks Scary
May 19, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Over the long term, what raises living standards is productivity—the amount that is produced per person—which increases from coming up with new ideas and implementing ways of producing efficiently. Productivity evolves slowly, so it doesn’t drive big economic [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — S&P 500 2,400, The Trend Remains Bullish for Stocks and Bonds
By Steve Blumenthal May 17, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,400 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Reagan’s 1981 vs. Trump’s 2017
May 12, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham When Ronald Reagan entered office in 1981, forward return expectations were a high 18.91% (see chart below: green line, left-hand side). Equally [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Cyclical Equity Bull Market Remains Dominant Trend
By Steve Blumenthal May 10, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,398 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: It’s Different This Time
May 5, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” – Sir John Templeton I presented at a recent advisor conference alongside a famous economist. He told a story about an investment manager who told him, “You know… [...]Read More >
CMG Q1 2017 Quarterly Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2017 first quarter performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. Market index performance is presented at the bottom of the chart. CMG Tactical Fixed Income [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — S/T Gold Sell Signal, Equity & FI Trends Remain Bullish, Sentiment Excessively Optimistic
By Steve Blumenthal May 3, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,388 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Rick Barry and The Wisdom of Limiting Losses
April 28, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The hardest part in trying to limit losses is not necessarily timing the market, but imparting the wisdom of limiting losses upon your clients. To limit drawdowns advisors and their clients cannot fully embrace raging bull markets that are excessively [...]Read More >
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