Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2017 second quarter performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. Market index performance is presented at the bottom of the chart. CMG Tactical Fixed Income [...]Read More >
On My Radar: FANG Stocks, Gigabytes and Terabytes
July 28, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal "Over the years I have seen scores of very bright investment advisors turn into hugely successful gurus who blaze into the investment business with spectacular forecasts. Yet, I've watched each and every one of them crash back to earth when a big subsequent [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Trend Trumps Sentiment
By Steve Blumenthal July 26, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,477 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The HY Market… A Leading Indicator
July 21, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The primary, direct driver of default rates is not the yield on Treasury bonds but rather the business cycle.” Martin Fridson, CFA CIO of Lehmann, Livian, Fridson Advisors, LLC At a conference in Chicago this week, following up on last week’s letter, Keep [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Cyclical Bull Trend Persists
By Steve Blumenthal July 19, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,466 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Keep Dancing but with a Sharp Eye on the Tea Leaves
July 14, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Our responsibility now is to keep dancing, but closer to the exit and with a sharp eye on the tea leaves.” – Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, LP Ray Dalio, chairman of Bridgewater Associates, wrote last week that the global economy is heading toward a new [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Cyclical Bull Trend Evidence
By Steve Blumenthal July 12, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,425 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Valuations, Coming Returns, Margin Debt and Janet Yellen’s Hubris
July 7, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes, and I don’t believe it will be.” - Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Trend Signals Remain Bullish on Both Equities and Fixed Income
By Steve Blumenthal July 5, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,427 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Opportunity Lies in Despair Not Euphoria
June 30, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Change of a long-term trend is usually gradual enough that it is obscured by the noise caused by short-term volatility. By the time secular trends are even acknowledged by the majority they are generally obvious and mature. In the early stages of a new secular [...]Read More >
A Century of Evidence on Trend Following Investing
A Century of Evidence on Trend Following Investing [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Risk of U.S. Recession Low; Equity Cyclical Bull Market Intact; Bullish Signals on Bonds
By Steve Blumenthal June 28, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,419 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: David Rosenberg — Notes from the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference (Part 5)
June 23, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Investors need risk management in bear markets, not in bull markets.” “We are in the business of making mistakes. The only difference between the winners and the losers is that the losers make big mistakes and the winners make small mistakes.” “There are a [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Fixed Income Remains in Buy Signal
By Steve Blumenthal June 21, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,437 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Investment Ideas — Notes from the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference (Part 4)
June 16, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Make new friends but keep the old, one is silver and the other is gold.” – Author Unknown The words above were etched on a wooden plaque that hung in my family’s kitchen. Mom was sending us a message and she’d point us to those words anytime we were quick to [...]Read More >
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