Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2018 first quarter performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. Market index performance is presented at the bottom of the chart. CMG Tactical Fixed Income [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 3.07% is the Line in the Sand for Yields
April 27, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “What we anticipate seldom occurs; what we least expect generally happens." Benjamin Disraeli We’ve been talking about a 3% yield on the 10-year Treasury as a line in the sand. It may well be. The important technical number is 3.07%. A break higher and 4% is [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — No Significant Changes from Last Week’s Post
By Steve Blumenthal April 25, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,634 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Stable and Unstable Financing Regimes — A Minsky Moment?
April 20, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “A Minsky moment is a sudden major collapse of asset values, which is part of the credit cycle or business cycle. Such moments occur because long periods of prosperity and increasing value of investments lead to increasing speculation using borrowed [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Market Tumult Pauses; Some Signals Remain Bullish
By Steve Blumenthal April 17, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,710 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Mauldin Economics 2018 SIC (Part 5) — Trade Wars Explained
April 13, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “… I think Cohn resigning, was basically (telling us) that trade protectionists have taken over the economic thought process at the White House. And I think that's really disturbing.” - David Rosenberg China’s President Xi Jinping, in a speech this week, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — NDR CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index De-Risking to 80%
By Steve Blumenthal April 11, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,652 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Mauldin Economics 2018 SIC (Part 4) – Louis-Vincent Gave: China’s Game-Changing Policy Shifts
April 6, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The deflationary period we’ve been in has come to an end.” – Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research China and Trump escalated the Trade War fist fight this week and the markets are having trouble digesting the dire news. Is Trump [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – A Special Note on Recent Market Volatility & Latest Signals
By Steve Blumenthal April 4, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,580 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Mauldin Economics 2018 SIC (Part 3) – Jeffrey Gundlach, “Inflation is Inflationary”
March 29, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I’m bullish on commodities because we are late cycle… You can argue how late we are in the cycle but we are late cycle. The bond bulls will argue there is more room to run, but nobody is going to say we are in the first inning or the third inning of an [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Testing 200-Day MA, Fixed Income Bearish, High Inflation Pressure
By Steve Blumenthal March 28, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,612 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Mauldin Economics 2018 SIC (Part 2) – Dr. Lacy Hunt, “Economic Theory Matters, Especially So Now”
March 23, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “There are two bubbles: We have a stock market bubble and we have a bond market bubble… What’s behind the bubble? Well, the fact is that essentially we’re beginning to run an ever-larger government deficit. As a share of GDP debt has been rising very [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Equity Market Maintains Course; Caution Urged Due to Likely Interest Rate Increase
By Steve Blumenthal March 21, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,714.99 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Mauldin Economics 2018 SIC (Part 1) – David Rosenberg, Skunk at the Picnic
March 16, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “A period of stability induces behavioral responses that erode margins of safety, reduce liquidity, raise cash flow commitments relative to income and profits, and raise the price of risky relative to safe assets – all combining to weaken the ability of the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Trade Signals Remain Bullish on Equities & Bearish on Bonds
By Steve Blumenthal March 14, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,750 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
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