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On My Radar: Your Word is Your Bond

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September 14, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Crashes are never caused by poor earnings or lower economic growth. Those things cause recessions, but they do not cause crashes. One thing, and one thing only, can cause a crash: forced selling.” – Matt Maley, The Real Reason for the 1987 Market [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – 2,388 Days and Counting 

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By Steve Blumenthal September 12, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,890 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Valuations, Forward Returns and Sandpiles

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September 7, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “[A] grain falling on a red spot can, by domino-like action, cause sliding at other nearby red spots.” – Mark Buchanan, Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen I woke up early last Saturday morning and found John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter on [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – More Buyers Than Sellers

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By Steve Blumenthal September 5, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,888 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Late Cycle Behavior and the 200-Day Stop-Loss Rule

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August 31, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The best insurance policy against missing big market moves is to have more than one online brokerage account.” – Barron’s, March 11, 2000 If you feel it appropriate, share this piece with your client(s).  It's about late cycles, investor behavior and risk [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Bull Markets, Junk Bonds and Jackson Hole

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August 24, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal "With solid household and business confidence, healthy levels of job creation, rising incomes, and fiscal stimulus arriving, there is good reason to expect that this strong performance will continue….” – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Policy Mistakes, Capital Preservation and Home Runs

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August 17, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The deflationary period we’ve been in has come to an end.” – Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research Last March, I shared with you GaveKal Research’s “Four Quadrants Framework.”  Louis-Vincent Gave presented at the March 2018 Mauldin [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Turkey Crisis, EU Banks and the ECB 

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By Steve Blumenthal August 15, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,807 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

CMG Q2 2018 Quarterly Performance Update

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Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2018 second quarter performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter.  Market index performance is presented at the bottom of the chart. CMG Tactical Fixed Income [...]Read More >

On My Radar: What I Learned at (Camp Kotok) Fishing Camp

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August 10, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.” “Everyone sort of lives with their rulers in the past and doesn’t look at coming changes.” “Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve Board... focus [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Gone Fishing

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August 3, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I don't want to scare the public, but we've never had QE. We've never had the reversal. Regulations are different. Monetary transmission is different. Governments have borrowed too much debt, and people can panic when things change.” – Jamie Dimon, Chairman [...]Read More >