By Steve Blumenthal November 7, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,774 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Take the Shot
November 2, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan The [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Short-term Bottom Appears in Place
By Steve Blumenthal October 31, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,717 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
CMG Q3 2018 Quarterly Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2018 third quarter performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. Market index performance is presented at the bottom of the chart. CMG Tactical Fixed Income [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Critical Tipping Points – A Dashboard of Indicators (Part II)
October 26, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “It is essential for everyone to understand the logical sequence of events that makes these (big debt crises) all play out all the same.” – Ray Dalio “Years of monumental Quantitative Easing / Negative Interest Rates monetary policy affected the behavioral [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Extreme Investor Pessimism S/T Bullish For Equities, Equity Trend Modestly Bullish, Bond Trend Bearish
By Steve Blumenthal October 24, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,737 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Critical Tipping Points – A Dashboard of Indicators
October 19, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “A generational opportunity hidden in plain sight. Its status of loneliness and ‘vox clamantis in deserto’ (a voice crying out in the wilderness) makes for potential outsized returns.” – Francesco Filia Plan 1: Buy-hold-rebalance. Buy lowest fee index funds [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed Moves to -1
By Steve Blumenthal October 17, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,809 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Painful Week for Global Equities and Fixed Income; The 3.07% Line in the Sand is Crossed
October 12, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I want to reiterate my headline: managing debt crises is all about spreading out the pain of the bad debts, and this can almost always be done well if one’s debts are in one’s own currency. The biggest risks are typically not from the debts themselves, but [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – The 3.07% Line in the Sand is Crossed; Expect Bumps
By Steve Blumenthal October 10, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,840 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Ray Dalio’s Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises (OMR Part III)
October 5, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Typically the worst debt bubbles are not accompanied by high and rising inflation, but by asset price inflation financed by debt growth. That is because central banks make the mistake of accommodating debt growth because they are focused on inflation and/or [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Equity Bull, Bond Bear, Forward 10-Year Return Range -3.03% to +8.43%
By Steve Blumenthal October 3, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,931 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Ray Dalio’s Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises (OMR Part II)
September 28, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The key to handling debt crises well lies in policy makers’ knowing how to use their levers well and having the authority that they need to do so, knowing at what rate per year the burdens will have to be spread out, and who will benefit and who will suffer [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Fed Day, Zweig Bond Signal Remains Bearish, Equity Trend Remains Bullish
By Steve Blumenthal September 26, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,924 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Ray Dalio’s Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises (OMR Part I)
September 21, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I am writing this on the tenth anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis in order to offer the perspective of an investor who navigated that crisis well because I had developed a template for understanding how all debt crises work. I am sharing that template [...]Read More >
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