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On My Radar: A History of Early Stage Bear Markets

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December 28, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Monetary tightening by central banks is like trying to pull a brick across a rough surface with elastic: nothing happens; still nothing happens;  then it leaps up and hits you in the face.” – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph On My Radar is a letter [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Record Extreme Pessimism, Expect a Rally

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By Steve Blumenthal December 26, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,351 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: You Get What You Need

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December 21, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I saw her today at the reception A glass of wine in her hand I knew she was gonna meet her connection At her feet was her footloose man You can't always get what you want You can't always get what you want You can't always get what you want But if you [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Opportunity, Not Crisis, Looms in 2019

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December 14, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I think we’re going to see a lot more of what we just saw, which is a lot more volatility, it’s really easy to say ‘I’m really bullish’ or ‘I’m really bearish.’ I kind of see a two-sided market.” “I think in the next year it will be, from where we are [...]Read More >

2019 Investment Outlook

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December 11, 2018 Hosted by Steve Blumenthal Executive Chairman, Chief Investment Officer, and Co-Portfolio Manager John Mauldin Chief Economist and Co-Portfolio Manager Brian Schreiner Senior Vice President, Private Wealth Group Transcript Brian:  Good afternoon. Thanks [...]Read More >

On My Radar: The End of the Beginning

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December 7, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The training wheels are coming off. Next week, the European Central Bank will conduct its final meeting of 2018 and is widely expected to announce the cessation of its QE asset purchase program. The ECB began buying sovereign bonds in 2015 and added [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – More Evidence of a Bear Market

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By Steve Blumenthal December 5, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,668 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: The Big Short

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November 30, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “When it comes to investing, we never know what the future holds or where we are going, but we should do all we can to know where we stand, since the current position of the cycle has powerful implications for how we should cope with its possible future.” – [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Stan Druckenmiller – Pieces of the Puzzle

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November 16, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal "All I want out of life is that when I walk down the street, folks will say, 'There goes the greatest hitter that ever lived.'" – Ted Williams Ted Williams hit .344 lifetime and won six American League batting titles, despite losing five years to military [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Pride and Joy

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November 9, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “… [W]e cannot do everything ourselves; different people are more capable in different matters… [I]n cases where we ourselves cannot be present, the vicarious faith of friends is substituted; and he who impairs that confidence, attacks the common bulwark of [...]Read More >