February 15, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness." - Daniel Kahneman It’s been a fantastic equity market rally but keep your lights on, from a statistical perspective, odds favor a retest of the December low. I came across the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Testing the 200-day Line – Breaking Higher?
By Steve Blumenthal February 13, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,755 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: My Favorite Recession Watch Charts and What They are Telling Us
February 8, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “He went from being “Pragmatic Powell” to a “Powell Put.” But I do worry about people buying the dip because it does remind me a little of how the credit crisis developed with sub-prime starting to crack in 2007 it cracked down to $80 and people bought that [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Red Zone – Upside Limited
By Steve Blumenthal February 6, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,730 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: An Observation on a Country Which I Love
February 1, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “It's 'pretty obvious' the Fed is moving to the whims of the markets.” - Art Cashin Managing Director, Director of Floor Operations UBS Financial Services Inc. “It is impossible for Jay Powell to be more dominated by market-world than he is today. Even in [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – The Zweig Bond Model Turns Bullish, Equity Markets Testing Resistance (200-day MA)
By Steve Blumenthal January 30, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,663 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
CMG Q4 2018 Quarterly Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2018 fourth quarter performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. Market index performance is presented at the bottom of the chart. CMG Tactical Fixed Income [...]Read More >
On My Radar: More Money Than Fools or More Fools Than Money
January 25, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “More money than fools or more fools than money. When there is more money than fools asset prices go up. When there are more fools than money, asset prices go down.” – Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research At last March’s Mauldin [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Testing Overhead Resistance (Red Zone)
By Steve Blumenthal January 23, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,643 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: RIP Jack Bogle, Welcome Home
January 18, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Overoptimism and overconfidence are two well-known psychological traits of our species. They are particularly dangerous in the late stages of an economic cycle where these terrible twins result in investors overestimating return and underestimating risk – a [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Equity Signals Remain in Sell, Fixed Income Signals Mixed; Will US Government Shutdown Cause Recession?
By Steve Blumenthal January 16, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,614 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 2019 Beginning Year Valuations, Coming Returns, and Coach
January 11, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal [Trump tweets, Xi Jinping, Global debt, the ECB Greenspan Put and Powell QT, He won’t do the same damn thing] "We didn’t start the fire It was always burning Since the world’s been turning We didn’t start the fire No we didn’t light it But we tried to [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – More Sell Signals, Recession Risk Rising
By Steve Blumenthal January 9, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,585 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: How the Market and Economic Machines Work
January 4, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “History is on our side. There have been 13 Fed tightening cycles since 1950. Ten of these landed the economy in recession, and neither the consensus nor the Fed staff saw them coming when they actually started. So before knowing anything else, the fact that [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – More Bear Market Signals, Extreme Pessimism Suggests Oversold Rally
By Steve Blumenthal January 2, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,507 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
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