September 6, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – The ECRI Recession Indicator Signaling Recession (Recession Watch Update)
By Steve Blumenthal September 4, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,924 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: Volatile Year Coming
By John Mauldin August 30, 2019 We have reached Labor Day weekend which, in the US, is a holiday for honoring work and workers. If you’re a Baby Boomer like me, you also grew up knowing school was about to start again. We didn’t do the mid-August thing back then. The first day of school was the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Art of Not Wanting a Deal
August 30, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “We advise the U.S. side not to underestimate the Chinese side’s ability to safeguard its development rights and interests. Don’t say we didn’t warn you!” – Commentary in the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China May 29, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Look at Gold Go
By Steve Blumenthal August 28, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,861 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: Digging a Hole to China
By John Mauldin August 23, 2019 Good news: The trade war is over. No, it’s getting worse. Or maybe it is ending but it could start again tomorrow. Confused? All of the above were true at various points in the last few weeks. Markets bounced around in reaction. And we are still no closer to [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Magic Money Tree Explained
August 23, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “When real yields are low or negative, investors’ returns are not commensurate with risk, so investment falls along with productivity gains and growth prospects.” – Lacy Hunt, Ph.D. and Van Hoisington, Hoisington Investment Management Company I begin this [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed: Neutral Signal
By Steve Blumenthal August 21, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,919 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: What I Learned at Camp Kotok
By John Mauldin August 16, 2019 I am back from my 14th annual Maine fishing camp and the mood was decidedly different this year. The private event at Leen’s Lodge is generally called Camp Kotok in honor of David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors who started these outings many years ago. CNBC and [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Camp Kotok Notes on China and MMT
August 16, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Keep an Eye on High Yield
By Steve Blumenthal August 14, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,894 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Trade and Currency Wars – Powell, Trump and Xi Jinping
August 9, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal Foreign exchange volatility is not new in modern finance, though relatively speaking it has been reasonably muted in recent decades compared to preceding ones. Uncertainty around foreign exchange suppresses business investment in that the ability to repay [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Trend Extended, HY Sell Signal, Bonds and Gold Remain Strong
By Steve Blumenthal August 7, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,858 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: An Opportunity in the Chaos
By John Mauldin August 2, 2019 One reason the economy is so fascinating is the way things just… happen. Growth blossoms if everyone just follows their own incentives and nothing gets in the way. The courage, vision and passion of entrepreneurs and those who risk their money backing them is one [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Gone Fishing
August 2, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal Like the pine trees linin' the windin' road I've got a name, I've got a name Like the singin' bird and the croakin' toad I've got a name, I've got a name And I carry it with me like my daddy did But I'm living the dream that he kept hid Movin' me down the [...]Read More >
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