October 18, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “If we pay attention to cycles, we can come out ahead. If we study past cycles, understand their origins and import, and keep alert for the next one, we don’t have to reinvent the wheel in order to understand every investment environment anew. And we have [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – The Trend Remains Your Friend
By Steve Blumenthal October 16, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,990 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: Our Nuts are in Danger
By John Mauldin October 11, 2019 Life would be so much easier if we didn’t have to worry about our financial futures. Though I suppose we don’t have to worry. Animals don’t. Squirrels instinctively store away nuts and thus live through winter without much thought. We humans have retirement [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Unlike Any Period Since the Late 1930s
October 11, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “I believe that we are on a classic journey that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes but has happened many times before, most recently in the late 1930’s. It is being driven by the same big forces that drove the dynamics in the late 1930’s. In particular, now, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Inflation Not Yet a Problem
By Steve Blumenthal October 9, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,914 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Temperature’s Rising
October 4, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “ There's a way to do it better - find it." - Thomas Edison " It's kind of fun to do the impossible." - Walt Disney Fresh signs of a global economic slowdown have driven equity markets lower this week and driven expectations for a Fed rate cut higher. [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Fixed Income and Equity Trends Holding
By Steve Blumenthal October 2, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,924 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Zulauf’s Bottom Line, What’s Ahead
September 27, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “When I look at markets, I first start to create a long-term big picture. I look at structural trends in economics, in demographics, in politics, etc. etc. And then I try to analyze the business cycle and were we sit in the cycle.” – Felix [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Despite Geopolitical Uncertainty, Equity & Fixed Income Signals Remain Bullish
By Steve Blumenthal September 25, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,968 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Unintended Consequences in a Complex System
September 20, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “I’m not saying that the past is prologue in an identical way. What I am saying that the basic cause/effect relationships are analogous: a) approaching the ends of the short-term and long-term debt cycles, while b) the internal politics is driven by large [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Fed Approves Cut, Divided on Further Action; Equity Signals Remain Green; Zweig Bond Model Flashing Red
By Steve Blumenthal September 18, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,984 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: Black Hole Investing
By John Mauldin September 13, 2019 Scientists say the rules change in a cosmic “black hole” at what astrophysicists call the event horizon. How do they know that? Not by observation, since what happens in there is, by definition, un-seeable. They infer it from the surroundings, which say that [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Dalio’s Three Big Issues and the 1930s Analogue
September 13, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “…nothing is new under the sun. Almost everything we see happened before at some point in human history, though of course with different details and magnitude. So we can’t throw out precedent completely. Well, except for negative interest rates. That really [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Equity Market Trend Continues While Trump Urges Fed to Cut Rates Dramatically
By Steve Blumenthal September 11, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,981 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: Dalio’s Analogue and Mauldin’s Commentary
By John Mauldin September 6, 2019 “The best way out is always through.” - Robert Frost “History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” - Mark Twain It will not shock you when I say we live in confusing times. Odd, seemingly inconsistent events and decisions don’t bring the [...]Read More >
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