August 28, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” - From Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel, The Sun Also Rises Yesterday, from beautiful Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivered what [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Is the Current Equity Rally Sustainable?
By Steve Blumenthal August 26, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,449 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Creative Destruction, Moral Hazard, and MMT
August 21, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The US is extremely important as it still provides the world with the most important reserve currency. Once faith in that currency declines and the US dollar enters a decisive multi-year bear cycle, hell could break loose.” – Felix Zulauf, Founder, Zulauf [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – S&P 500 Sets New Record
By Steve Blumenthal August 19, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,392 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: The Second Great Depression… But Not Really
By John Mauldin August 14, 2020 "It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours." —Harry S. Truman, 33rd US President In recent weeks, numerous commentators started to suggest the US and the world are entering a depression. For some areas of the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Pandemic and Debt
August 14, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “It’s a battle between the Fed’s $750 billion SPV to buy corporate IG and HY bonds and those who don’t have access to this free money. And funds, like mine, are buying what the Fed is buying. Thus, the oversubscription of new offerings. ETFs must put the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Buffett’s Favorite Valuation Indicator at Record Extreme Overvaluation
By Steve Blumenthal August 12, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,355 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Valuations and Coming Returns
August 7, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” - Benjamin Graham, “the Father of Value Investing” and Author of The [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Gold’s Hot, Recession Conditions and Sentiment Updates
By Steve Blumenthal August 6, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,327 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
CMG’s “How We Think About Wealth” White Paper
Get Steve and John's Insightful White Paper: "How We Think About Wealth" * Required Fields ** Downloading the above White Papers or other media will automatically sign you up for CMG's email distribution list. Unsubscribe at any time. CMG cares about protecting your sensitive personal [...]Read More >
On My Radar: On Deflation
July 31, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal News flash: The 10-year Treasury yield falls to 0.52% after record GDP contraction. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at 1.18%. The bond market has it right. Every weekday, an Axios Markets email hits my inbox. This morning’s post caught my [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Continue Rise as COVID-19 Maintains Grip on US
By Steve Blumenthal July 29, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,227 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Regression to Trend
July 24, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “For those clinging to the recovery narrative, I just don’t see it.” – David Rosenberg, President and Chief Economist & Strategist, Rosenberg Research Last week we took a look at coming return probabilities, which showed the expected 10-year future return [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – NASDAQ 100 Index Relative to S&P 500 Index (1999 Tech Bubble)
By Steve Blumenthal July 22, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,254 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
CMG Mauldin Smart Core Quarterly Conference Call – 2Q 2020
July 20, 2020 Hosted by: Brian Schreiner, Senior Vice President, Private Wealth Group, CMG Capital Management Group Segment 1 (03:45): Interview with John Mauldin, Chief Economist & Co-Portfolio Manager, CMG Capital Management Group Segment 2 (13:42): Interview with CMG Mauldin [...]Read More >
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