October 9, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal "I find it funny that people who didn’t think there was any inflation in the pipeline are now talking about stagflation. This is nothing like the 1970’s, which was a pretty dismal period, and not just because of polyester and disco." - Barry Ritholtz [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed Moves Back to -1
By Steve Blumenthal October 7, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,384 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Great Reset Update – $50 Trillion Debt Coming
October 2, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “Because what most people and their countries want the most is wealth and power, and because money and credit are the biggest single influence on how wealth and power rise and decline, if you don’t understand how money and credit work, you can’t understand [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Watch Out for -2!
By Steve Blumenthal September 30, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,363 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: Great Reset Update: $50 Trillion Debt Coming
By John Mauldin September 25, 2020 Amid all 2020’s new problems, it’s easy to overlook the old ones. Yet they are still there and, like a silently spreading virus, silently getting worse. One such problem is debt, and specifically government debt. All debt shares one common characteristic. A [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Inflation
September 25, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “Anyone who looked only at the index of prices would see no reason to suspect any material degree of inflation, whilst anyone who looked at the total volume of bank credit and the prices of common stocks would have been convinced of the presence of an [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – A Look at Historical Returns (1926 to Present)
By Steve Blumenthal September 23, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,315 (previous close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: Stall Speed Economy
By John Mauldin September 18, 2020 When Cornwallis surrendered to George Washington at Yorktown in 1781, tradition has it that the British band played an old English children’s folk tune, “The World Turned Upside Down.” If buttercups buzz’d after the bee, If boats were on land, churches on [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Few Ideas Around Risk Management
September 18, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices. I’ve seen too many things go to zero, stocks and commodities. The whole trick in investing is: “How do I keep from losing everything?” If you use the 200-day moving [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Interest Rates will be Lower for Longer
By Steve Blumenthal September 17, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,385 (previous close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Sell-Stop Avalanche
September 11, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “We are in the midst in what we old fogeys tend to call a sell-stop avalanche. It happened before in history and most of them look like this. I know there are several theories about what has been causing the recent sharp weakness, but based on over six [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Zweig Bond Model Back in a Buy Signal
By Steve Blumenthal September 9, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,400 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The “UVC” Light at the End the COVID-19 Tunnel
September 4, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The most striking similarity between the 1920s and the 1990s bull markets is the notion that traditional measures of stock valuation have become obsolete.” – Edward Chancellor, Devil Take the Hindmost (via John Hussman) Welcome to September 2020. Hard to [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: Light in the COVID Tunnel
By John Mauldin August 14, 2020 If you ever think you just can’t win, I know how you feel. I’m labeled both a doomsayer and a Pollyanna—sometimes in reaction to the same letter. In fact, I am neither. I used to be the “muddle-through” guy who acknowledged difficulty but expected eventual [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Insanity
By Steve Blumenthal September 2, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,580 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
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