September 24, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “In the absence of the ability to see the future, how can we position our portfolios for what lies ahead? Much of the answer lies in understanding where the market stands in its cycle and what that implies for its future movements." ― Howard Marks, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – It’s Time to Hedge
By Steve Blumenthal September 22, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,395 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline – Inflation: More Transitory than Expected
By John Mauldin Posted: September 17, 2021 If the inflation numbers leave you scratching your head, join the club. The August data was especially perplexing. The Producer Price Index came in hot, up 8.3% in the last year, inviting 1970s comparisons. Obviously, our current situation is different [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 2021/2022 Investment Outlook Update
September 17, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “There are always those that thrive even in not so good economic times and there are always those who don’t thrive even in excellent economic times. Don’t worry, and let’s thrive.” ― Yours Truly Last week, we looked at equity market valuations and coming [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Keep Trading, Manage Risk
By Steve Blumenthal September 15, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,474 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Valuations and Coming One-, Three-, Five-, Seven-, Nine-, and 11-Year Returns
September 10, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “This is the one thing I can never understand. To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the “Hallelujah Chorus” in the Buffett household. When hamburgers prices go up, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – American Association of Individual Investors Bullish on Equities (Suggests Caution)
By Steve Blumenthal September 8, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,498 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: See Paris First
September 3, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “Two waves in the ocean are talking to each other. The front wave tells the second that it's frightened because it is about to crash into the shore and cease to exist. But the second wave shows no fear. It explains to the first: "You are frightened because [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – August 2021 Market Summary
By Steve Blumenthal September 1, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,498 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Observations on Market Euphoria
August 27, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “Change happens quickly and, often, unpredictably. And as we will see, the unpredictable part is actually a mathematical principle. It’s time passing without change that causes the worst problems, including some historic economic catastrophes. It turns out we [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Observations on Market Euphoria
By Steve Blumenthal August 25, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,498 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
Thoughts from the Frontline: Ubiquity, Complexity, and Sandpiles
By John Mauldin Posted: August 13, 2021 “How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ―Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises Change happens quickly and, often, unpredictably. And as we will see, the unpredictable part is actually a mathematical principle. As in the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Inflation/Stagflation Is Kryptonite to Central Bankers
August 20, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "To me, everything, everything–and I emphasize everything from here going forward through the rest of the year and certainly through 2022 and maybe into 2023–I believe is the inflation story." - Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer, Bleakley Advisory [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Overbought, Overvalued, Overleveraged, Euphoric…
By Steve Blumenthal August 18, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,413 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Mauldin – Policy Errors Have Consequences
August 13, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "It’s not riding the tiger that is the problem, it’s the dismount.” - John Mauldin, CMG Chief Economist & Co-Portfolio Manager of the CMG Mauldin Smart Core Strategy I'm on vacation this week, and I'm checking in with you relaxed and enjoying the downtime [...]Read More >
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