December 22, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “BIS [Bank of International Settlements] research suggests that the ups and downs of the dollar – and the cycle of dollar liquidity – are what drive the world’s animal spirits and asset prices. This liquidity spigot is clearly being turned off. The Fed is [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Wishing You a Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah and a Healthy and Prosperous New Year - 12-20-2017
By Steve Blumenthal December 20, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,682 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 2018 Investment Outlook – “It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over” - 12-15-2017
December 15, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “For when the One Great Scorer comes To mark against your name, He writes -- not that you won or lost -- But how you played the Game.” > Grantland Rice (from the poem "Alumnus Football") When I was young, my mother bought me a book written by [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Trend Continues to Charge Ahead - 12-13-2017
By Steve Blumenthal December 13, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,665 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Liscio Report - 12-8-2017
December 8, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal I met Philippa Dunne, co-editor of The Liscio Report, at the Camp Kotok fishing trip last August. She dials into state tax receipts and has many deep contacts. What I like is how she tracks the data on the lookout for recession risks. I found the most recent [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Bumpy Few Days But Bull Trend Persists - 12-6-2017
By Steve Blumenthal December 6, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,627 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: It Feels Like 1999 All Over Again - 12-1-2017
December 1, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… Focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.” [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Party On Garth, Party On Wayne (Extreme Optimism) - 11-29-2017
By Steve Blumenthal November 29, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,627 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Trade Signals Remain Risk On - 11-22-2017
November 24, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” - Benjamin Graham Happy Thanksgiving to you and your wonderful family. Today’s post is holiday short because by the time it hits your in box I’ll hopefully be [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — A Happy Thanksgiving Stock Market High - 11-22-2017
By Steve Blumenthal November 22, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,570 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Fatal Attraction for the Slim Chance - 11-17-2017
November 17, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “If you are adding to your long-term holdings of stocks and other risk assets at current market valuations, you are likely to be betting -- knowingly or not -- on a combination of three drivers of future returns; or you are planning to sell your holdings to [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — High Yield Warning Signal? - 11-15-2017
By Steve Blumenthal November 15, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,570 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Global Macro Outlook & Probable 7-, 10- and 12-Year Equity Market Returns - 11-10-2017
November 10, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “We are going to have to address the debt. And we are going to get more debt.” – Joe Kalish, Chief Global Macro Strategist, Ned Davis Research This week’s On My Radar is an investment outlook piece. While current trend evidence remains bullish, you’ll see [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Inflation Signal - 11-8-2017
By Steve Blumenthal November 8, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,594 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Don’t Expect a Minivan to Drive Like a Ferrari - 11-3-2017
November 3, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “There are essentially two forces influencing returns: growth and inflation. The task, then, is building a portfolio that can weather any scenario, regardless of what these factors are doing… You should be building a diversified portfolio with assets that [...]Read More >
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